2025, Vol. 6, Issue 2, Part O
From stability to swings: Metal and bullion price volatility in India's post-covid commodity market
Author(s): Sourabh Bansal, Tushar Gupta, Devika Krishnan and Rahul Mittal
Abstract: This study explores the post-COVID-19 volatility and interlinkages among precious metals (Gold, Silver) and base metals (Aluminium, Copper, Nickel, Zinc, Lead) in India using daily spot price data from December 2020 to December 2024. Employing ADF and PP tests, Johansen co-integration, Granger causality, and the DCC-GARCH model, we analyse both long-run relationships and time-varying co-movements across these commodities. The results reveal strong co-integration among base metals, and significant short-run causality particularly from Nickel, Copper, and Lead to other metals. Gold and Silver maintain high mutual correlation, reflecting their safe-haven roles, while metals like Nickel and Silver act as bridges between industrial and investment segments. DCC-GARCH estimates show that correlations intensified during market stress, reducing diversification potential. These findings suggest that India’s metal markets have become increasingly integrated post-pandemic, amplifying systemic risk during global shocks. The study offers valuable insights for investors, portfolio managers, and policymakers on managing commodity price risk and designing responsive market strategies in volatile economic conditions.
DOI: 10.22271/27084515.2025.v6.i2o.861
Pages: 1354-1365 | Views: 116 | Downloads: 19
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How to cite this article:
Sourabh Bansal, Tushar Gupta, Devika Krishnan, Rahul Mittal. From stability to swings: Metal and bullion price volatility in India's post-covid commodity market. Asian J Manage Commerce 2025;6(2):1354-1365. DOI: 10.22271/27084515.2025.v6.i2o.861
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