2025, Vol. 6, Issue 2, Part R
Assessing the fiscal impact of goods and services tax (GST) on central indirect tax revenue in India: An interrupted time series analysis
Author(s): Somesh Kumar Shukla and Abhishek Dwivedi
Abstract: The introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in July 2017 marked a fundamental transformation in India’s indirect tax framework, aiming to unify the fragmented tax system, improve compliance, and enhance revenue efficiency through digitalization. This study empirically examines the fiscal impact of GST on central indirect tax revenue in India over the period 2010-11 to 2023-24. Using secondary data obtained from official government sources such as the Department of Revenue, CBIC, and GST Council, the research applies an Interrupted Time Series Analysis (ITSA) to measure both the immediate level effect and the long-term trend change in revenue performance following the implementation of GST.
The results reveal a statistically significant and positive impact of GST on revenue mobilization. The model exhibits an R² value of 0.986, confirming a robust explanatory fit. The findings show an immediate revenue increase of approximately ₹80,500 crores in the first year after implementation and an accelerated growth trend of ₹19,400 crores annually in the subsequent years. These outcomes indicate that GST has not only consolidated the tax structure but also strengthened fiscal transparency and compliance through digital governance mechanisms. The study concludes that GST has successfully established a more efficient, technology-driven, and sustainable central indirect tax system in India.
DOI: 10.22271/27084515.2025.v6.i2r.895
Pages: 1670-1676 | Views: 36 | Downloads: 15
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How to cite this article:
Somesh Kumar Shukla, Abhishek Dwivedi. Assessing the fiscal impact of goods and services tax (GST) on central indirect tax revenue in India: An interrupted time series analysis. Asian J Manage Commerce 2025;6(2):1670-1676. DOI: 10.22271/27084515.2025.v6.i2r.895
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